Mitigation Scenarios

Night vs Day

Scenario 1 : Ideal world

tmp = birdAtRisk(:)./energy(:);

[tmp_s,id] = sort(tmp);

id = id(~isnan(tmp_s));

figure('position',[0 0 1200 800]); hold on; box on; grid on

% plot(tmp_s);

tmp_e = cumsum(energy(id),'omitnan')./nansum(energy(:));

plot(tmp_e,'linewidth',2)

tmp_b = cumsum(birdAtRisk(id))./nansum(birdAtRisk(:));

plot(tmp_b,'linewidth',2)

yline(energy_day,'-k','Energy produced during the day')

yline(energy_safe,'-k','Energy produced without any bird at risk')

xline(find(tmp_b>.5,1),'-k','50% of birds at risk reduced')

yline(tmp_e(find(tmp_b>.5,1)))

xline(find(tmp_b>.1,1),'-k','90% of birds at risk reduced')

yline(tmp_e(find(tmp_b>.1,1)))

xline(find(tmp_b>.01,1),'-k','99% of birds at risk reduced')

yline(tmp_e(find(tmp_b>.01,1)))

axis tight;

legend('Energy produced','Number of bird at risk','Location','northwest')

ylabel('Cumulative Sum')

xlabel('Datapoint (grid cells x time) sorted by increasing impact (birds@risk / energey produced)')

figure('position',[0 0 1300 500]); hold on; grid on;

plot((1-tmp_e),tmp_b,'k','linewidth',2);

axis tight; xlim([0 .2])

ylabel('Percentage of bird saved')

xlabel('Percentage of Energy lost')

Scenario 2: Defined migration period

[G,t_day] = findgroups(dateshift(time,'start','day','nearest'));

tmp_b = splitapply( @sum, reshape(sum(sum(birdAtRisk),2),1,[]), G);

tmp_e = energy;

tmp_e(daynight)=0;

tmp_e = splitapply( @nansum, reshape(nansum(nansum(tmp_e),2),1,[]), G);

figure;

hold on

plot(t_day,tmp_b./sum(birdAtRisk(:)))

plot(t_day,tmp_e./nansum(energy(:)))

figure; hold on;

y=cumsum(sort(tmp_b))./sum(tmp_b);

plot(y)

yline(.5)

[~,tmp]=min(abs(y-.5));

xline(tmp,'-',['50% of bird at risk in ' num2str(numel(t_day)-tmp) ' days'])

axis tight;

t_week = datetime('1-Jan-2018'):7:datetime('31-Dec-2018');

tmp_col = nan(4,numel(t_week)-1);

for i_t=1:numel(t_week)-1

it = time>t_week(i_t)&time<t_week(i_t+1);

tmp_b = birdAtRisk(:,:,it);

tmp_n = ~daynight(:,:,it);

tmp_e = energy(:,:,it);

tmp_col(:,i_t) = [nansum(tmp_b(:)) nansum(tmp_b(tmp_n)) nansum(tmp_e(:)) nansum(tmp_e(tmp_n))];

end

figure('position',[0 0 1300 1000]);

subplot(2,1,1); hold on;box on

bar(t_week(1:end-1),tmp_col(1,:))

bar(t_week(1:end-1),tmp_col(2,:))

ylim([0 18e6]); ylabel('Bird at Risk [nb of bird]')

yyaxis 'right'; ax = gca; ax.YAxis(2).Color = 'k'; box on

ylim([0 18e6]/sum(tmp_col(2,:))); ylabel('Bird ar Risk. ratio of total')

subplot(2,1,2); hold on; box on

bar(t_week(1:end-1),tmp_col(3,:))

bar(t_week(1:end-1),tmp_col(4,:))

ylim([0 3e16]); ylabel('Power potential [-]')

yyaxis 'right'; ax = gca; ax.YAxis(2).Color = 'k'; box on

ylim([0 3e16]/sum(tmp_col(3,:))); ylabel('Power Potential. Normalized with total Produced')

legend('Day+Night','Night');

thr_date = datetime({...

'1-Mar-2018','1-May-2018','15-Aug-2018','15-Nov-2018';...

'1-Mar-2018','1-Apr-2018','1-Oct-2018','1-Nov-2018';...

});

figure('position',[0 0 1300 500]); hold on

fill([thr_date(1,1) thr_date(1,2) thr_date(1,2) thr_date(1,1)],[0 0 10^6 10^6],'y','EdgeAlpha',0,'FaceAlpha',.5)

fill([thr_date(1,3) thr_date(1,4) thr_date(1,4) thr_date(1,3)],[0 0 10^6 10^6],'y','EdgeAlpha',0,'FaceAlpha',.5)

fill([thr_date(2,1) thr_date(2,2) thr_date(2,2) thr_date(2,1)],[0 0 10^6 10^6],'g','EdgeAlpha',0,'FaceAlpha',.5)

fill([thr_date(2,3) thr_date(2,4) thr_date(2,4) thr_date(2,3)],[0 0 10^6 10^6],'g','EdgeAlpha',0,'FaceAlpha',.5)

plot(time,reshape(sum(sum(birdAtRisk),2),1,[]),'k')

box on

clear tmp_col

tmp_col(1,:) = [nansum(birdAtRisk(:)) nansum(energy(:)) nansum(energy(:))];

for i_t=1:size(thr_date,1)

it = ~( (time>thr_date(i_t,1)&time<thr_date(i_t,2)) | (time>thr_date(i_t,3)&time<thr_date(i_t,4)) );

tmp_col(i_t+1,:) = [nansum(birdAtRisk(:,:,it),'all') nansum(energy(:,:,it),'all') nansum(energy(:,:,it),'all')+nansum(energy(:,:,~it).*daynight(:,:,~it),'all') ];

end

t=table({'No cut','yellow','green'}',tmp_col(:,1),tmp_col(:,2),tmp_col(:,3),'VariableNames',{'Mitigation','Bird at risk','Energy','Energy w/ Night'})

t = 3×4 table

	Mitigation	Bird at risk	Energy	Energy w/ Night
1	'No cut'	1.1412e+08	7.1863e+17	7.1863e+17
2	'yellow'	5.4284e+06	4.1937e+17	5.5642e+17
3	'green'	4.2221e+07	5.7910e+17	6.3971e+17

t{:,2:end}=t{:,2:end}./t{1,2:end}*100

t = 3×4 table

	Mitigation	Bird at risk	Energy	Energy w/ Night
1	'No cut'	100	100	100
2	'yellow'	4.7569	58.3573	77.4273
3	'green'	36.9981	80.5841	89.0179

figure; hold on; box on

plot(unique(time_d),birdAtRisk_d)

yyaxis right; plot(unique(time_d),energy_d)

figure;

plot(unique(time_d),movsum(birdAtRisk_d,14)); ylabel('Bird at risk')

yyaxis right; plot(unique(time_d),movsum(energy_d,14)); ylabel('Potential energy')

Scenario 3: Map

figure; hold on; box on;

plot(dcoast(:), tmp_e(:)./tmp_b(:),'.k'); lsline;

[G,dcoast_bin] = findgroups(round(dcoast(:),-1));

plot(dcoast_bin, splitapply(@nanmean,tmp_e(:)./tmp_b(:),G),'-r','linewidth',2)

xlabel('distance to coast [km]');

ylabel('Energy lost per bird saved')

ddd=0:10:500;

tmp_bdd=nan(size(ddd)); tmp_edd=nan(size(ddd));

for i_d=1:numel(ddd)

tmp_bdd(i_d)=nansum(tmp_b(dcoast>ddd(i_d)))/nansum(birdAtRisk(:));

tmp_edd(i_d)=nansum(tmp_e(dcoast>ddd(i_d)))/nansum(energy(:));

end

figure; hold on; box on

plot(ddd,tmp_bdd)

plot(ddd,tmp_edd)

xline(50)

yline(tmp_bdd((ddd==50)))

yline(tmp_edd((ddd==50)))

xlabel('Distance to coast from which WT are turned-off [km]');

ylabel('Percentage of ... ')

legend('Bird saved','Energy lost')

figure('position',[0 0 1400 700]);

ax1=subplot(size(thr_date,1),3,(i_t-1)*3+1); hold on;

h = worldmap([g.lat(1)-2 g.lat(end)+2], [g.lon(1)-2 g.lon(end)+2]);

setm(h,'frame','on','grid','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','MLabel'),'visible','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','PLabel'),'visible','off')

bordersm('countries','facecolor',[228 238 243]./255);

tmp = tmp_b;

tmp(tmp==0)=nan;

surfm(g.lat,g.lon,tmp)

c=colorbar('south'); title('Birds saved [birds]');

colormap(ax1,brewermap([],'OrRd'))

ax2=subplot(size(thr_date,1),3,(i_t-1)*3+2); hold on;

h = worldmap([g.lat(1)-2 g.lat(end)+2], [g.lon(1)-2 g.lon(end)+2]);

setm(h,'frame','on','grid','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','MLabel'),'visible','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','PLabel'),'visible','off')

bordersm('countries','facecolor',[228 238 243]./255);

tmp2 = tmp_e;

tmp2(tmp2==0)=nan;

surfm(g.lat,g.lon,tmp2/1e12)

%scatterm(tim.Latitude,tim.Longitude,'.k');

c=colorbar('south'); title('Energy lost [TJ]');

colormap(ax2,plasma)

ax3=subplot(size(thr_date,1),3,(i_t-1)*3+3); hold on;

h = worldmap([g.lat(1)-2 g.lat(end)+2], [g.lon(1)-2 g.lon(end)+2]);

setm(h,'frame','on','grid','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','MLabel'),'visible','off'); set(findall(h,'Tag','PLabel'),'visible','off')

bordersm('countries','facecolor',[228 238 243]./255);

surfm(g.lat,g.lon,tmp2./tmp)

%scatterm(tim.Latitude,tim.Longitude,'.k');

c=colorbar('south'); title('Energy lost per Bird saved [TJ/birds]');

colormap(ax3,viridis)

Scenario 4: Wind direction

figure; hold on; box on

plot(rad2deg(dd),tmp_bdd); ylabel('Number of bird saved')

yline(tmp_bdd((dd==.8)))

yyaxis right;

plot(rad2deg(dd),tmp_edd);ylabel('Energy lost')

xline(rad2deg(.8))

yline(tmp_edd((dd==.8)))

xlabel('Wind direction difference below which WT are turned off [°]');

figure; hold on; box on

plot(rad2deg(dd),tmp_bdd./sum(tmp_b(:))); ylabel('Number of bird saved')

%yline(tmp_bdd((dd==.8)))

yyaxis right;

plot(rad2deg(dd),tmp_edd./nansum(tmp_e(:)));ylabel('Energy lost')

xline(rad2deg(.8))

%yline(tmp_edd((dd==.8)))

xlabel('Wind direction difference below which WT are turned off [°]');

Scenario: function of bird flow

figure('position',[0 0 800 400]); box on; grid on

plot(birdf, birdAtRisk_saved,'linewidth',2); ylabel('bird at risk saved');

yyaxis right;

plot(birdf, energy_lost,'linewidth',2); ylabel('energy lost')

set(gca,'xscale','log')

xlabel('Threashold of bird flow [bird/m^2/hr]')